The whole chain, plotted
One line per indicator: the reconstructed monthly history the backtest runs on (2022 onward, primary sources only), updated with the values our fetchers actually pulled. The dashed line is the registered trouble line. Gaps are gaps — we never interpolate.
Oil money coming in● HOLDING
OIL & GAS BUDGET REVENUES · LINK 1 · CLASS 2now +18.6% vs last year · the trouble line is -25% · detailsCan they still borrow?▲ BURNING
OFZ PLACED / QUARTERLY PLAN · LINK 2 · CLASS 2now 0.7% of this quarter's borrowing plan sold · the trouble line is 20% · detailsRainy-day fund left● HOLDING
LIQUID NWF · LINK 3 · CLASS 2now $46.4 bn liquid · the trouble line is $20 bn · detailsHow fast they burn cash● HOLDING
BUDGET DEFICIT, % GDP (ANNUALIZED) · LINK 4 · CLASS 3now 3.3% of GDP deficit (12-month) · the trouble line is 10% · detailsBusinesses going under● HOLDING
ARREARS / BANKRUPTCIES (TRANSMISSION TO REAL SECTOR) · LINK 5 · CLASS 1now 0.74× the pre-war (2021) pace · the trouble line is 1.3× · detailsPrices in shops● HOLDING
ANNUAL INFLATION · LINK 6 · CLASS 3now +6.0% vs last year · the trouble line is +40% · detailsHow fast they print money● HOLDING
M2 MONEY SUPPLY GROWTH · LINK 6 · CLASS 3now +13.2% vs last year · the trouble line is +30% · detailsStuff moving by rail● HOLDING
RZD RAIL LOADING · LINK 7 · CLASS 2now -0.8% vs last year · the trouble line is -8% · detailsElectricity being used● HOLDING
POWER GENERATION · LINK 7 · CLASS 2now -1.4% vs last year · the trouble line is -5% · detailsReconstruction caveats are on the track-record page; per-fetch raw fragments and parse failures are on each indicator page.